2019 Early Hurricane Season Forecasts
While early forecasts of 2019 Atlantic Basin hurricane activity are out, meteorologists caution us not to become complacent. It only takes one hurricane making landfall in your area to make it an active season – and that you should prepare the same for each season no matter what the forecast. A forecast of light activity was made in 2017 at the same time of year and we ended up with one of the worst hurricane seasons ever with Harvey, Irma and Maria causing widespread destruction.
That said, the Colorado State Department of Atmospheric Science notes the probability of slightly lower activity in the Atlantic Basin for the 2019 season (typically June-November). El Nino, which reflects wind conditions in the Pacific and contributes to stronger or weaker storms in the tropical Atlantic, are relatively weak right now. A stronger El Nino may quiet the formation of east coast storms while a weaker El Nino may result in a more intense tropical Atlantic season. In addition, meteorologists at Colorado State found that water temperatures in the Atlantic slightly below average. Warmer Atlantic waters allow a storm to pick up energy and intensify. AccuWeather meteorologists forecast a normal to slightly above normal season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues its Atlantic forecast in May, but there is much useful information on their website here.
Warmer and Wetter: Local Government Has Solutions
Local residents in Mankato, Minnesota met at a Water Storage Forum hosted by Minnesota State University (and reported in the Mankato Free Press) to discuss measures they could take to stem the heavy flow of water to their homes and businesses. Southern Minnesota is prone to flooding and, as State climatologist Kenneth Blumenthal stated, “We know we are getting warmer and wetter” – based on 30 years of monitoring the Minnesota River Basin.
In addition to flooding, more rainfall is increasing river pollution as run-off carries bacteria, nutrients and sediment, according to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency. The pollution that run-off carries is under-appreciated, particularly in light of the growing intensity of flooding we are likely to face. Some communities are addressing overflowing storm water by creating storage in multiple locations to capture excess water before it runs into local rivers.
Faribault County has created a map indicating where water could be stored. A local landowner came forward to create a restored wetland on his property to retain water that would have otherwise flowed through. To mitigate the cost of turning property into wetland, the county has created a water version of “cap and trade” using a “Wetland Bank”. A landowner that removes a portion of his land for water storage can sell to the bank and developers or municipalities that are draining property may buy credits. In addition to this policy, attendees at the forum described the importance of adequately staffing county drainage departments. Faribault County originally received a grant to hire a drainage engineer and this later grew into a stand-alone department.
House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis Holds Initial Meeting
Set up in January, the committee held its first hearing on April 4th and heard from youth climate action leaders. This hearing was held at least in part, we think, in reaction to a flap about Diane Feinstein’s meeting with young people and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’ proposed Green New Deal. (Testimony can be found here.)
The viewpoints of young people at the hearing reflect a growing recognition of the inter-generational transfer of risk and cost. This is an argument frequently heard in discussions about underfunded pensions, but it applies here as well. With public pensions, it took some time for accounting rules and rating agency criteria to better recognize the fiscal impact and enter the forefront of credit conversations. Disclosure of climate change risks, accounting recognition and inclusion in rating decision-making are just beginning to emerge (see Climate Chronicles IV). We suspect recognition of climate risks will follow a similar trajectory as public pensions and retiree healthcare. We all need to become “weather actuaries”. Both are long-dated, slow-to-emerge problems (with long-dated solutions) but as time marches on they have both become more immediate in their fiscal, economic and human impact.
On February 28, according to Energy and the Environment Daily the Western Republican Caucus held a rally that appeared to be set up to make fun of the Green New Deal and make “climate change denial” comments. Claiming that nature needs CO2, Rep. Paul Gosar (R, Ariz.) said, “”Photosynthesis is where plants take carbon dioxide to produce oxygen.” Righto! This is why many local communities are “greening” with plantings as well as creating grassy areas to absorb storm water, clear and cool the air and mitigate floods. Rapid development of subdivisions that removed trees and paved over natural foliage is one reason given for the extreme damage by Hurricane Harvey in the Houston/Harris County area.
Gosar went on to cite another frequently used argument against those concerned about climate change. “As the son of a geologist, our climate has always changed, and if you doubt me, go dig up some fossils,” Gosar said. “It’ll tell you an awful lot about how our climate has changed.” To be sure, over hundreds of millions of years, this is also an accurate statement and it is a time frame that geologists work with.
But for those unwilling to wait for the next Ice Age to cool the planet we suggest it’s best to set aside the controversy about “anthropogenic” causes of climate change and adopt a “do no harm” approach instead. Decades of U.S. policy and laws have focused on limiting the negative health consequences and property damage from air, water and land pollution. Certainly, investors (and Midwestern farmers and coastal property owners) want to know today whether the money they put to work will be diminished or lost by near term extreme weather events. Authors of the fifth and latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated:
“Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
(p 5. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.)
