Two studies of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic were published in 2007; each reviewed the “non-pharmaceutical” actions of cities in the United States. The focus of both studies were virtually identical, each asking, in the absence of vaccines or anti-viral medicine, whether the timing and number of interventions affected mortality and severity of outcomes. In the National Academy of Sciences study, researchers found that cities that implemented multiple interventions early (such as closure of schools, churches, theaters, “social distancing” etc.) experienced roughly 50% lower peak mortality and a flatter epidemic curve, although cumulative ultimate mortality was 20% lower (than cities that did not implement early interventions). The studies examine the actions of each city, their outcomes and have plentiful charts for inquisitive readers. They give us a window into what may unfold in the next few weeks and months based on actions and inactions of our state, local and federal governments. Of course we are more urban and globalized that we were in 1918, but we let you do the extrapolations…..Links can be found here and here.
