Local education employment fell by nearly 300,000 between May and June this year on an unadjusted basis according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics (CES). When viewed through the “seasonally adjusted” lens — the most commonly quoted statistics — local education employment grew by 70,000 between May and June. What’s up with that?
Seasonal adjustment smooths out mostly predictable ups and downs in the labor market like extra hiring for holiday shopping, lifeguards on the beach (not a large job category)… and local education. It is routine in many school districts to lay off a proportion of teachers and staff in the spring (aka “reduction in force”) and once budgets and student head counts are better known, rehire the necessary staff.
We argue that it is important to also look at the unadjusted figures particularly in the current economic environment — at least in the category of local education employment. In the local education category, BLS routinely increases seasonal employment above unadjusted employment by about 1.2 million employees in the month of July. In November, when the full complement of staff is on board, adjusted figures are around 340,000 below actual head counts.
This fiscal year (FY2021) and at least through next year, state budgets will be substantially lower than pre-COVID-19 and significant education cuts are already in place. Student head count is the biggest driver of state aid, but how does that play out this year? Student head count and local class size preferences drive the number of teachers, paraprofessionals and staff needed.
In the absence of physical classrooms, however, the sky’s the limit for class size. Better tech systems, better distribution of bandwidth and laptops to underserved populations become the critical resource spend in a “free and equal” online world of education. On the flip side, physical classrooms that are to be set up with social distancing and regular sanitizing need more teachers and staff. Who knows how to forecast this?
There’s a delicate balance of factors as officials consider re-opening schools in September: its good for the kids, good for the parents who need to get back to work, not so good if you are worried about the adults in the room and the higher probability of contracting COVID-19 or the next bug when you spend your day in close quarters. Young children do get sick and while recovery rates are higher in the younger population, they can certainly be community “spreaders” to others.
We present a table below of overall government employment from March-June, compare with June 2019 and show the adjusted local education figures in the last column. Perhaps the anomaly in the adjustments help explain why we’re “adding jobs” while at the same time unemployment filings remain persistently high. Looking at both sets gives a broader picture of what’s going on in the economy, in our opinion.
