We upload a presentation that we gave to state legislators in Minnesota, focussed on climate change and capital investment. In it, there are links to some core resources you might find useful. Some states and local governments are now beginning to develop climate action/adaptation plans that integrate with capital planning. We also include a link to a tracker for activities against climate change mitigation from the Heartland Institute.
Presentation to House Capital Investment Committee 3.24.22
Speaking of climate change, the Colorado State University Tropical Weather and Climate Research Project released its first forecast for hurricane season in the Atlantic for 2022, which begins on June 1st and runs through the end of October. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and team estimate that there could be 19 “named storms” compared with an average of 14.4 between 1991 and 2020. They also forecast 9 hurricanes compared with an average of 7.2 including 4 major hurricanes compared with 4.2 for the 1991-2020 period.
The Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) in Sarasota, Florida led by Bob Bunting, CEO, also presented forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic Basin hurricane system last week. The CAC also forecasts an above average season, with 22 “named storms”, 9 hurricanes with 5 rising to “major hurricanes”. As we’ve mentioned in prior blog posts, Bunting forecast the Texas freeze in 2021 with easily understandable explanations due to changes in the “jet stream”. He calls the upcoming 2022 season a “nail biter”.
If their forecasts are correct, this will be the eighth sequential year that the forecast assumes an above average season. If the pattern continues like this, at what point does above average forecast become the average? And then, what does that mean in terms of adjustment to higher risks of extreme, destructive storms? As the discussion at CAC reinforced, it is imperative for state and local governments to consider planning their infrastructure projects with a screen for potential damage to people and property from major storms. Importantly, this includes raising evacuation routes to safe levels that could withstand storm surge. In addition, planners should consider where and how to maintain protection for those that cannot leave. Further, the potential for electric outages can lead to fatalities from heat or freezing temperatures.
We have been advocating in our work that state/local governments use a process called “enterprise risk management” (ERM) that is operative among many corporations and federal government agencies, but less so among state/local governments. Very briefly, the community (whether government, not-for-profit, regional, statewide, local, dare we envision public/private collaboration?) identifies key risks that could prevent them from achieving their mission (often called a “risk register” implying regular review), and then assigns probabilities in a matrix from high risk/low probability to low risk/high probability (sometimes called a “heat map”). Risk of extreme climate events should be folded into ERM (which could also include cybersecurity or preventing gun violence to name two more). Planning for the future and capital investment should arise from these efforts rather than being separate and apart. Needless to say, launching such an effort “yesterday” will help with allocation of infrastructure funds that are now coming from the recent Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).
Bunting and Elizabeth Moore, a Director at CAC, discussed a local traffic circle being built in Sarasota and questioned whether that project was ever subject to screening for sea level rise and if not (which is likely), whether there’s still time to make adjustments. During the presentation, Bunting mentioned that sea level is up 9 inches since 1950 and expected to continue to rise steadily in the foreseeable future.
Accomplishing change is not without headwinds. We note two bills that were introduced in Congress recently, while unlikely to pass, they reflect the sentiments of some of our elected officials. Sponsors and text for “Ports not Windmills Act” can be viewed here and “The Real Emergencies Act” (which seeks to prevent the president from declaring an emergency on the premise of climate change) can be viewed here.
Finally, the combined effects from extreme weather events are often overlooked. Bunting mentioned that Hurricane Michael destroyed many trees in its path, removing some of the area’s natural protection while creating kindling for major wildfires. A major wildfire occurred, not in the northwest, but in the Florida Panhandle this March. You can read more about this here. Smokey the Bear is going to need a bathing suit.
