Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project issued an updated forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season July 6, raising its estimate to “above average”. In contrast with the June forecast, which estimated a “normal” season of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, the project now estimates 18 named storms and 90 named storm days, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. You can read their current forecast here.
Presence of a “robust El Nino” effect combined with unusually warm Atlantic ocean surface temperatures are affecting weather patterns globally this season – increased rainfall in the eastern Pacific, droughts in Asia and Australia and an elevated hurricane forecast in the Atlantic. A Bloomberg analysis from June examined the economic effect on global supply chains such as excessive rainfall that limits copper from Chile for use in computer chips, cars and home appliances. Extreme heat in China has killed livestock and added stress to the electric grid, affecting Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. production. Bloomberg authors assert that the elevated El Nino phenomena can impair GDP, prices and increase inflation. There are several good explainers of the effects of both El Nino – warmer water phenomena, and La Nina – cooler water phenomena here (Bloomberg), here (NOAA), here (BBC News). Stu Waterman also posted an explainer of El Nino and La Nina for the Climate Adaptation Center in Sarasota here and a more recent article about the historically elevated heat, titled after the movie, “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once”.
While there are numerous climate-change naysayers, a growing number of states are seeing private property insurers exit business in their states, raising alarms for homeowners. In their June 7 article, State Net Insights (from Nexis/Lexis), authors commented that State Farm and Allstate are no longer issuing property insurance to new customers in California. Farmers insurance will no longer offer new property coverage in Florida and AIG is pulling out of insuring houses on the Florida coastline. Rates in Florida are already four times the national average. One fifth of Louisiana homeowners have seen their insurance cancelled according to a 2023 survey from LSU. You can read more detail here.
Be prepared!! Forecasters emphasize that it only takes one bad storm to wreak costly damage to property, health, life and livelihood, so communities should prepare as if the worst could happen at any time in the coming months.
Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project issued an updated forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season July 6, raising its estimate to “above average”. In contrast with the June forecast, which estimated a “normal” season of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, the project now estimates 18 named storms and 90 named storm days, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. You can read their current forecast here.
Presence of a “robust El Nino” effect combined with unusually warm Atlantic ocean surface temperatures affect weather patterns globally – increased rainfall in the eastern Pacific, droughts in Asia and Australia and an elevated hurricane forecast in the Atlantic. A Bloomberg analysis from June examines the economic effect on global supply chains such as limited copper from Chile for use in computer chips, cars and home appliances. Extreme heat in China has killed livestock and stressed the electric grid, affecting Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. production. Bloomberg authors assert that the elevated El Nino phenomena can impair GDP, prices and increase inflation. There are several good explainers of the effects of both El Nino – warmer water phenomena, and La Nina – cooler water phenomena here (Bloomberg), here (NOAA), here (BBC News). Stu Waterman also posted an explainer of El Nino and La Nina for the Climate Adaptation Center in Sarasota here and a more recent article about the historically elevated heat, titled after the movie, “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once”.
A growing number of states are seeing private property insurers exit their states, raising alarms for homeowners. In their June 7 article, State Net Insights (from Nexis/Lexis), authors commented that State Farm and Allstate are no longer issuing property insurance to new customers in California. Farmers insurance will no longer offer new property coverage in Florida and AIG is pulling out of insuring houses on the Florida coastline. Rates in that state are already four times the national average. One fifth of Louisiana homeowners have seen their insurance cancelled according to a 2023 survey from LSU. You can read more detail here.
For municipal securities investors, credit analysts, public sector CFOs and elected officials, severe weather events could reduce the tax base and revenue streams, result in lower credit ratings, and impose unexpected costs for recovery and repair, particularly in the context of reduced property insurance. Extreme weather events also have a knock-on effect of creating a toxic brew from flooded landfills, chemical dumps, and household contents. We have already seen several “unhealthy” weather days in the northeast, mid-Atlantic, midwestern and northwestern states due to uncontrolled fires burning in northern Canada.
Be prepared!! Forecasters emphasize that it only takes one bad storm to wreak costly damage to property, health, life and livelihood, so communities should prepare as if the worst could happen at any time.
[…] and sudden heavy rainfall. We discussed the “El Nino” weather pattern in a recent blog post and the impact of heat one year ago, here. It will likely exert its influence on weather over the […]